自然灾害下电网运行风险控制策略探讨

Discussion of power system operation risk control strategy in natural disasters

停电防御框架向自然灾害预警延伸已成为广泛共识。自然灾害演化的时空分布特征及其诱发电网故障的不确定性,迫切需要将基于确定性准则的安全稳定分析向电网运行风险评估拓展,将基于电力系统安全稳定控制技术导则确定性场景的三道防线控制向基于动态故障场景的风险控制延伸。针对自然灾害下电网运行风险如何在线防御的问题,总结了当前自然灾害下电网输电元件故障概率特征及其评估技术以及自然灾害下安全防御的困局与应对现状。分析了包括设备保护在内的电网安全稳定各道防线的风险控制代价特征。提出了适应灾害下概率及损失变化特征的风险控制策略。该策略既可实现预防控制与紧急控制间防御门槛的自动设置,又可获得降低电网实际运行风险的在线预防控制优化措施。

It has become a common consensus that the blackout defense framework has been extended to the early warning of natural disasters.Due to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of natural disasters’evolution,and fault uncertainty induced by natural disasters,it is urgent to extend the safety and stability analysis of power system based on deterministic criterion to the operation risk assessment,to extend traditional safety and stability control based on deterministic scenarios listed in three-defense-lines to risk control.In this paper,several key technologies in the field of disaster prevention,namely fault probability assessment and its characteristics,power system security defense predicament and its countermeasures,are reviewed firstly.Secondly,the risk control cost characteristics of power system considering three-defense-lines is analyzed.Finally,risk control strategy is discussed,which is adaptive for probability and loss characteristics in natural disasters.With the proposed strategy,it is easy to set contingency and acquire the preventive control optimization measure that effectively reduces the operation risk of power system.