靠谁养老、去哪养老:乡城流动人口养老意愿分析

Who to Rely on and Where to Go:Analysis on the Pension will of Rural-urban Migrants

随着我国流动人口不断老化,他们的养老已经成为社会各界关注的重要问题.在理论假设的基础上,运用2013年全国流动人口监测调查数据,从靠谁养老和去哪养老两个维度分析了乡城流动人口的养老意愿及其影响因素.数据显示,乡城流动人口中82.6%选择靠自己养老,76.7%选择回老家养老,说明大部分人倾向于自我养老和回乡养老.实证研究发现:拥有开放的思想观念,能够促使乡城流动人口更倾向于选择靠自我养老和在本地养老;流入地的保险参保、拥有自有住房和较好的社会融合状态,有助于他们选择自我养老、政府养老和本地养老.另外,年龄、受教育程度、稳定的职业等对养老意愿也具有显著影响.政府应重视向流动人口来源地布局养老资源,加大流动人口的养老保险覆盖,支持流动人口就地购房,破除城乡融合的体制和文化障碍,倡导转变传统养老观念,以满足新形势下乡城流动人口养老的新需求.

With the migrant’s population aging in China, Old-age support has become the focus of society social concern. Using the data of 2013 national migrant survey, this paper analysis desires of old-age support of ruralurban migrant from the dimensions of who-support and where-to-support. The data shows that 82. 6% of rural-urban migrant choose self-support and 76. 7% of them choose return home, which illustrate that most of rural-urban migrant tend to self-support and home-support. Empirical study finds that: the modem ideas will increase the probability of self-support and local-support for rural-urban migrant;the inflow place of endowment insurance, private housing and social integration help to choose self-support, govemment-support and local-support. Also,age,education level and stable job play a significant effect on desires of old-age support. To meet the old-age support new demand of rural-urban migrant, the government should pay attention to provide pension resource at origin place, enlarge endowment insurance coverage, support house-purchase in inflow place, break the system and cultural barriers of rural-urban integration and transform the traditional ideal of old-age support.