单一核武器袭击伤亡情况模拟分析

Simulation analysis of casualties in a single nuclear attack

目的评估单一核武器攻击后可能对公众造成的伤害及影响范围。方法利用核武器爆炸参数及大气扩散模型等理论工具,可以计算特定场景的核爆伤亡情况。结果通过计算得到了潜在冲突热点地区遭受单一核武器攻击后烧伤、冲击伤和放射伤的人数及地域分布情况,并给出核爆影响分布图。结论鉴于单一核武器袭击造成的严重伤亡情况,建议加强核爆杀伤后果研究,评估现有卫生应急体系,并以此为依据,改进和提高核辐射卫生应急能力。

Objective To assess the extent of harm and impact to the public by a single nuclear attack. Methods Using theoretical tools such as nuclear weapon explosion parameters and atmospheric diffusion models, the toll of nuclear explosion in specific scenario can be calculated. Results The number and geographical distribution of trauma, thermal burn, and radiation injuries after a single nuclear weapon attack in potential conflict hotspots are obtained through calculation , and the distribution maps of nuclear explosion effects are also provided. Conclusion Considering the mass casualties caused by a single nuclear attack, it is recommended to strengthen the study on the outcome of nuclear explosion, to assess the existing health emergency system, and then to improve the medical response capability to nuclear or radiological emergency based on the assessment.