摘要
在对载人航天系统进行风险评估的过程中,经常会遇到具有高可靠性、小子样特性的复杂大系统。面对此类系统传统风险评估方法已经不能满足载人航天系统高可靠性的任务需求,应当引入PRA方法对系统进行定性与定量相结合的评估。针对小子样的特性,文又引入了相对风险评估方法对系统进行定量分析,以相对代替绝对既可以减少工作量提高评估效率又可以有效地减少不确定性对评估结果的影响。对PRA方法的基本流程和相对定量分析方法还要进行深入探讨。
In the process of risk assessment of manned space engineering systems,complex large-scale systems with high reliability and small sample characteristics are often encountered.Faced with the fact that the traditional risk assessment methods of such systems can no longer meet the mission requirements of high reliability of manned spaceflight systems,PRA method should be introduced to evaluate the system qualitatively and quantitatively.In order to deal with the characteristics of small samples,this paper also introduces the relative risk assessment method to quantitatively analyze the system,which can not only reduce the workload and improve the evaluation efficiency,but also effectively reduce the impact of uncertainty on the evaluation results.In this paper,the basic process and relative quantitative analysis method of PRA method will be discussed in depth.
作者
周昊澄
杨宏
夏侨丽
ZHOU Hao-cheng;YANG Hong;XIA Xiao-li(Institute of Manned Space Engineering,China Academy of Space Technology Beijing 100094,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2019年第5期109-112,共4页
Computer Simulation
