环境规制对产业结构升级的影响——基于中国沿海城市系统广义矩估计的实证分析

Impact of Environmental Regulation on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure:Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Coastal City Systematic GMM

为检验环境规制能否推动沿海地区产业结构升级,从正式环境规制与产业结构升级的非线性关系和非正式环境规制的直接影响入手,采用我国沿海33个城市2007-2016年动态面板数据构建计量模型,利用系统广义矩估计(GMM)法进行检验。研究结果表明:我国沿海地区环境规制与产业结构升级存在"U"型关系,拐点值为0.4452,环境规制强度小于拐点值时抑制产业结构升级,越过拐点值时促进产业结构升级,目前33个城市的环境规制强度均已越过拐点值且东部沿海地区最高;非正式环境规制中,人均收入、人力资本和技术创新水平显著促进产业结构升级,人口密度、外商投资和贸易水平对产业结构升级具有负向作用且显著性存在区域差异性。

In order to test whether environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in coastal areas, this paper starts with the non-linear relationship between formal environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading and the direct impact of informal environmental regulation, based on the dynamic panel data of 33 coastal cities in China from 2007 to 2016, an econometric model is constructed and tested by the generalized moment estimation(GMM) method. The results show that:(1)There is a U-type relationship between environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading in coastal areas of China, the turning point value is 0.445, when the intensity of environmental regulation is smaller than the inflection point, the upgrading of industrial structure is restrained, and the upgrading of industrial structure is promoted when the intensity of environmental regulation is less than the inflection point. At present, the intensity of environmental regulation in 33 cities has already crossed the inflection point and the highest in the eastern coastal area.(2)Among the informal environmental regulation, the level of per capita income, human capital and technological innovation significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure, while the population density and the level of foreign investment and trade have a negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, and there are significant regional differences.