货币政策的权衡:推高房价还是刺激消费

Monetary Policy:Increasing House Price or Stimulating Consumption

准确识别货币政策变动对房价和居民消费的短期动态冲击,对提振当前国内持续低迷的居民消费和控制快速上涨的房价具有重要的现实意义。文章通过构建具有随机波动率的时变系数向量自回归模型(SVTVP-VAR)识别了货币政策、房价和居民消费之间的非线性时变关联机制。实证结果表明:第一,我国房价上涨是导致居民消费疲软的重要因素,货币政策对房价上涨具有逆向调控的特征。为降低我国房价上涨对居民消费造成的挤出效应,可以在全国范围内推行空置税和房产税,增加自有住房家庭和拥有多套住房家庭的使用成本与持有成本,从而释放居民消费活力。第二,货币政策的正向冲击对居民消费和房价均表现为正向影响,但现阶段居民消费的反应程度更强。该结果表明,现阶段实施流动性合理充裕的货币政策时,流动性适度流向了居民非房产消费市场,而未大量流向房地产市场并致使房价激增。因此,在货币政策调控方面,流动性合理充裕的货币政策可以通过信贷途径刺激居民消费,但仍需要防范流动性过度流入房地产市场并严重挤出居民消费。

Accurately identifying the short-term dynamic impact of monetary policy changes on housing prices and household consumption has important practical significance for boosting the current domestically depressed household consumption and controlling rapidly rising housing prices. The paper identifies a nonlinear time-varying correlation mechanism between monetary policy, house price and household consumption by constructing a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility(SVTVP-VAR). The empirical results show that: First, China’s housing price rise is an important factor leading to weak consumer spending, and monetary policy has countercyclical regulation on housing price increases. In order to get rid of the crowding-out effect caused by rising house prices in China, it is possible to implement vacant and property taxes nationwide, increase the cost of use and the cost of ownership of home-owned families and families with multiple homes, thereby releasing the vitality of residents’ consumption.Second, the positive impact of monetary policy has a positive impact on both household consumption and housing prices, but at this stage, household consumption is more responsive to the positive impact of monetary policy. This phenomenon fully shows that when the loose monetary policy is implemented at this stage, the market liquidity has flowed into the non-residential consumer market in a moderate manner, but it has not flowed to the real estate market and caused the house price to surge. Therefore, in terms of monetary policy regulation, the current stable and loose monetary policy can stimulate residents’ consumption through credit channels, but it is necessary to prevent excessive liquidity from flowing into the real estate market and severely crowding out household consumption.