低碳试点城市政策对贸易依存度的影响——基于DID模型的实证研究

The Impact of Low Carbon Pilot Cities on Trade Dependence: An Empirical Study Based on DID Model

低碳试点城市政策旨在实行城市的低碳经济,同时城市的发展也要以低碳经济为发展模式和导向。所谓低碳下的贸易行为就是以低碳经济为背景,在城市对外贸易过程中保持低能耗、低污染和低排放。文章从地级市贸易层面展开研究,通过对迄今为止公布的36个低碳试点城市和随机选取的85个对照样本城市进行双重差分法实证分析,结果表明:低碳试点城市政策对所有36个试点城市的进出口贸易依存度和进口贸易依存度分别产生显著的抑制作用,对出口贸易依存度也为抑制作用但不显著,政策对于第二批28个试点城市的效果要明显优于第一批的8个试点城市。进一步创新性地将低碳城市政策进行量化分析,探究低碳政策的影响因素,进而为以后城市发展政策提出合理化的建议。

The low-carbon pilot cities policy aims to implement the low-carbon economy, low-carbon production and lowcarbon consumption in the city, and the development of the city should be based on low-carbon economy. The so-called lowcarbon trade is, based on the low carbon economy, maintaining low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission in the process of foreign trade in the city. Based on the study of the trade level of the prefecture-level city, this paper conducted a double differential analysis of 36 low-carbon pilot cities and 85 randomly selected cities. The analysis results show that the low carbon pilot cities policy has significant negative impact for all 36 pilot cities both in export trade dependency and import trade dependency, but no significant influence on export trade dependency. The effect of the policy of the second batch of 28 pilot cities is significantly better than that of the first batch of 8 pilot cities. Furthermore, the paper makes a quantitative analysis for the low-carb on pilot city policy innovatively, and explores the influencing factors of the policy, then puts forward reasonable suggestions for future urban development.