海上风电项目经济性分析及竞价预测

Economic Analysis and Bidding forecast for Offshore Wind Farm

《关于2018年度风电建设管理有关要求的通知》的发布,海上风电将从2019年起,从标杆电价进入了竞价上网的新时代。考虑到中国海上风电项目风能资源水平差异、水深及离岸距离差异、海洋环境因素差异、海洋地质条件差异素、台风工程致险等因素,中国的海上风电项目的发电量、项目投资水平、工程建设周期、运维管理费用等将有显著差异,这就决定了中国海上风电竞标电价,将是动态性的,且存在一定的技术不确定性及投资风险。本文将通过对比分析国内外海上风电现状,并进行算例分析,提出适合我国海上风电的电价建议和海上风机新机型经济测算要考虑的风险因素。

Due to the publication of the Notice on the Requirements of Wind farm Construction Management in 2018, offshore wind power will enter a new era of bidding in 2019. Considering the differences of wind energy resources level, water depth and offshore distance, marine environmental factors and geological conditions, typhoon project risk and other factors, China's offshore wind farm will have significant differences in power generation, project investment level, construction cycle, operation and maintenance management costs. Therefore, China's offshore wind power bidding price will be dynamic, and there are certain technical uncertainties and investment risks. In this paper, the current situation of offshore wind farm at home and abroad will be compared and analyzed, and a numerical example will be given. Suggestions on price of offshore wind farm and risk factors to be considered in economic calculation of new offshore wind turbines in China will be put forward.