北京地区人口非传染性疾病风险预测研究

Prediction of risks of non-communicable diseases in population in Beijing area

目的应用前期研究建立的非传染性疾病(noncommunicable diseases,NCDs)风险预测理论与方法,对北京地区人口NCDs风险进行预测,为研究制定系统风险控制管理对策和整体能力提升提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS 23.0软件对NCDs死亡率进行统计,并依据WHO的NCDs风险评估法,由专家咨询法对北京市人口NCDs资料进行分析,对北京地区人口NCDs未来风险进行评估。结果预测2025年北京地区恶性肿瘤、心脏病、慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率可能分别为221.2/10万、205.0/10万、63.7/10万,预测2030年时恶性肿瘤、心脏病、慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率可能分别为241.3/10万、220.5/10万、67.3/10万,将比2016年分别上升36.1%、29.4%和0.03%。结论预测北京地区2025年、2030年NCDs风险为高,通过加强健康城市建设、加强院前急救、远郊区资源配置均等化、环境治理、园林绿化、控制吸烟、早筛查、早诊断、早治疗和精准治疗等综合防治措施,可降低北京地区NCDs风险,从高降为中等水平。

Objective To forecast the risks of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among population in Beijing area by using the risk prediction theory and method of NCDs established in the previous study, and to provide a scientific basis for the research and development of systemic risk control management strategies and overall capacity improvement. Methods SPSS 23.0 software was used to statistically analyze the mortality rates of NCDs. According to the NCDs risk assessment method recommended by the World Health Organization, the data of NCDs among population in Beijing were analyzed by expert consultation method, and the future risks of NCDs in population in Beijing were evaluated. Results It was predicted that the mortality rates of malignant tumors, heart disease and chronic respiratory diseases in 2025 might be 221.2/100,000, 205.0/100,000 and 63.7/100,000 respectively, and those in 2030 might be 241.3/100,000, 220.5/100,000 and 67.3/100,000 respectively, which would increase by 36.1%, 29.4% and 0.03% respectively as compared with those in 2016. Conclusions It is predicted that the risks of NCDs in Beijing area in 2025 and 2030 will be high, but the risks can be reduced from high to medium level by implementing comprehensive prevention and treatment measures, such as strengthening the construction of healthy cities, intensifying pre-hospital first aid, equalizing resource allocation in remote suburbs, environmental governance, landscaping, smoking control, early screening, early diagnosis, early treatment and precision treatment.