房价波动对山东城镇居民消费的影响效应分析——基于VECM模型的实证检验

Analysis on the Effect of House Price Fluctuations to Consumption of Urban Resident in Shandong Province

利用近5年山东省房价、收入、消费、信贷等方面数据分析了房价对山东消费的挤出效应、引致效应,即挤出效应主导,总效应为负。通过考察模型正交化的脉冲响应函数,得出短期内房价上涨会促进消费的增加,即财富效应主导,总效应为正。给出注重挖掘山东消费潜力,盘活存量,促进二手交易、发展共享消费等新模式,完善住房租赁市场,差异化信贷降低居民房贷压力等政策建议。

This paper uses house price,income,consumption and credit data of shandong province in recent five years to analyse the crowding out effect,causing effect and wealth effect of house price to consumption of Shandong, which shows the crowding out effect dominants, while the total effect is negative. By examining the response function of orthogonalization, we conclud that in the short term the increasing house prices will promote the increase of consumption, which includes the wealth effect dominants, and the total effect is positive. This paper proposes that Shandong should give attention to mining deposit quantity, promoting the development of second-hand transaction and sharing consumption, constructing the housing rental market, and reducing the mortgage stress of residents by differentiated credit policy and so on.