新型城镇化背景下地方政府债务与区域经济增长

Local Government Debt,Regional Economic Growth and Impact of New Urbanization Policies

基于新型城镇化的政策冲击,对地方政府债务对区域经济增长的影响进行理论分析和实证研究。在理论分析中,运用三部门经济模型从短期和长期两个角度分析地方政府债务对区域经济增长的影响,并将新型城镇化纳入经济模型,分析这一政策冲击的影响效应。结果显示,短期内地方政府债务促进区域经济增长,而长期内地方政府债务对区域经济增长的影响具有不确定性,且新型城镇化政策的冲击提高了地方政府债务水平和经济增长稳态水平。在实证研究中,基于2008—2017年全国四大区域的相关统计数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法研究地方政府债务对区域经济增长的影响,结果显示,四大区域的地方政府债务均对区域经济增长产生抑制作用,且新型城镇化实施过后这种抑制作用均有所增强。

Based on the policy impact of new urbanization,this paper makes a theoretical analysis and empirical research on the impact of local government debt on regional economic growth. In the theoretical analysis,this paper uses the three sector economic models to analyze the impact of local government debt on regional economic growth from the short term and long term,and takes the new urbanization as a policy impact analysis. Results show that the local government debt can promote regional economic growth in the short term,while the impact of long-term local government debt on regional economic growth is uncertain,and the implementation of the new urbanization policy will improve the level of local government debt and the steady growth rate of the economy. In the empirical study,based on the relevant statistical data of the four major regions of China from 2008 to 2017,this paper uses the system generalized moment estimation method to analyze the influence of local government debt on regional economic growth. Results show that the local government debt has a negative effect on regional economic growth,and this inhibition effect has been enhanced after the implementation of new urbanization.