负面舆论对游客忠诚度的曲线影响——安全感知和旅游形象感知的中介作用

Mechanisms of Negative Public Opinion on Tourist Loyalty as Mediated by Tourist Safety Perceptions and Destination Image

学界对负面舆论与游客忠诚度的影响关系持有完全相反的理论观点,厘清两者的影响关系既有利于拓展游客忠诚度的前导影响因素,也有利于旅游地科学地进行负面舆论下的形象管理和市场调控。该研究基于风险沟通理论和信息整合理论,构建了负面舆论、游客安全感知、旅游形象感知和游客忠诚度之间的融合影响框架,并以新疆作为案例地进行问卷调研和实证分析。分层回归和曲线回归的检验结果显示:(1)负面舆论与游客安全感知、旅游形象感知和游客忠诚度之间均呈U型影响关系;(2)游客安全感知和旅游形象感知均正向作用于游客忠诚度;(3)游客安全感知、旅游形象感知完全中介了负面舆论与游客忠诚度之间的关系。研究表明,负面舆论对游客安全感知、旅游形象感知和忠诚度均具有曲线影响机制,不同强度下的负面舆论对三者具有正反不同方向的影响,低强度的负面舆论对三者有负向影响,但是过高的负面舆论对游客安全感知、旅游形象感知和后续忠诚度的影响会发生正向反转。同时,该研究分离出了负面舆论影响游客忠诚度的3种决策情景,揭示了负面舆论影响下游客忠诚度结果导向的多层次影响路径。研究建议,相关管理部门应精准管控旅游地的负面舆论,并建立以安全体验为导向的全过程服务体系。

The influence of negative public opinion on tourism loyalty has been explored from differing theoretical perspectives. By clarifying the relationship between negative public opinion and tourist loyalty, the leading influential factors for tourist loyalty can be identified, in addition to management of destination image and regulating the tourist destination’s market under negative public opinion. Based on the theories of risk communication and information integration, a framework was constructed for the integration of negative public opinion, tourist safety perceptions, destination image, and tourist loyalty.A questionnaire survey and empirical analysis was conducted using Xinjiang as a case study. The Chinese autonomous region of Xinjiang is a mysterious and charming tourist destination. However,violent incidents have occurred frequently in recent years, which has led to reports of tourism safety risks in Xinjiang. Thus, some tourists have concerns about the safety of Xinjiang tourism activities. In this study, 639 tourist questionnaires were collected from six top-level scenic spots in Xinjiang and two transportation hubs, including Urumqi railway station and Urumqi Diwopu International Airport.The results of stratified regression and curve regression analyses show that:(1) there is an U-shaped influential relationship between negative public opinions and tourists’ safety perceptions,destination image, and tourist loyalty;(2) both tourist safety and destination image perceptions have a positive effect on tourist loyalty;and(3) tourist safety perceptions and destination image completely mediate the relationship between negative public opinion and tourist loyalty. The results show that negative public opinion has a curvilinear influential mechanism on tourists’ safety perception,destination image, and tourist loyalty. Different intensities of negative public opinions have positive and negative influences on these three factors. The low-intensity effect of negative public opinions had a negative effect on the three factors, but the influence of excessively negative public opinions on tourists’ safety perception, destination image, and subsequent loyalty was positively reversed.This study has the following theoretical contributions to the literature. First, negative public opinions were introduced into the study of tourist safety perceptions, and risk communication and information integration theories were extended. The empirical results show that negative public opinion is an information environment factor with a multilevel information-stimulation effect on tourists’ comprehensive perceptions and subsequent behavioral intentions in the tourism process. Second, the curvilinear influence of negative public opinions on tourist safety perceptions, destination image, and tourist loyalty was revealed. Negative public opinions have a negative impact on tourist perceptions of security, destination image, and tourist loyalty. However, the high level of negative public opinions gives tourists a higher tendency to compare their psychological perceptions of tourism risk. Tourists will correct their perception of negative public opinions according to the perceived level of risk;therefore, their perceptions of tourism safety, destination image, and loyalty curves will fluctuate.Third, the theoretical literature is in consensus that negative public opinions have a negative impact on destination image, but the curvilinear impact of negative public opinions on destination image is less verified. This study provides a new theoretical perspective on the influential relationship between negative public opinions and destination image. Fourth, three decision-making scenarios were explored in which negative public opinions influence tourist loyalty and the results revealed a multilevel influential pathway of result-oriented tourist loyalty under the influence of negative public opinions.Finally, relevant management departments should precisely control the level of negative public opinions about tourist destinations and establish a safety experience-oriented tourism service. The limitations of this study and future research direction were clarified simultaneously.