人力资本分布区域极化与动态演进——基于中国省级维度的测算

Regional Polarization and Dynamic Evolution of Human Capital Distribution: Based on the Calculation of Provincial Dimensions in China

人力资本在地理空间上的非均衡发展,区域间经济发展差距扩大,将成为未来10~20年经济高质量发展的阻碍。基于此,刻画了中国人力资本区域分布的基本特征,测算出近20年间中国人力资本分布区域差异、极化程度,并对其动态演进过程进行分析。研究发现:①各区域人力资本水平增长的同时,区域间的人力资本分布存在显著的空间非均衡特征,发达地区人力资本储备占明显优势,且与不发达地区的差距不断扩大,并呈现出由东向西扩散的趋势;②西部地区各省份与其他省份人力资本的差异是构成全国人力资本整体非均衡的原因;③中国人力资本水平增长迅速,但区域间人力资本差异存在两极分化的现象:人力资本越低的省份,人力资本增长越慢,而人力资本越高的省份,则增长越快。

The imbalanced development of human capital in geographic space has widened the gap of regional economic development and hindered the future high-quality economic development in 10 to 20 years.The basic characteristics of the regional distribution of human capital in China is described,and the regional differences,polarization degree and dynamic evolution process of human capital distribution in China is calculated for the past 20 years.The results show that:firstly,with the increase of human capital levels in various regions,there is a significant spatial imbalance in the distribution of human capital among regions.The reserve of human capital in developed regions has a significant advantage,and the gap between developed regions and underdeveloped regions is constantly widening,showing a trend of diffusion from east to west.Secondly,the difference of human capital between western provinces and other provinces is the cause of the overall non-equilibrium of human capital in China.Thirdly,China's human capital level is growing rapidly,but the regional differences in human capital are polarized,which shows that provinces with lower human capital have slower growth of human capital,while provinces with higher human capital have faster growth.