国家规模的经济影响:50年来的回顾

Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations: a Retrospect of the Late 50 Years

采用经合组织(OECD)国家的样本,评估《国家规模的经济影响》这本册子,发现其中设定的、被库兹涅茨巧妙捕捉的许多假设是正确的,尽管其他条件不得不被重新确定。小型发达的开放国家因全球化而能克服“小的害处”,大国依赖规模经济以逐步形成内在的国内增长。两种战略均有成功,以至大小国究其经济绩效而言难以区分。而且,它们实现结构变迁的外在能力不同,小国的“同质性”因移民流动而变得模糊,大小国唯一保持的“分割”差异是宗教多样性不同。

In September 1957,the International Economic Association held a conference at The Hague on the“Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations”,which proceedings were published in 1960.Fifty years later,while the economic environment has dramatically changed,the issues put forward and discussed in this volume are still largely relevant.The goal of this paper is to assess whether the analytical framework and intuitions of the major contribution of the volume,that of Simon Kuznets,has passed well the test of time.Using a sample of the richest and freer OECD countries,many of the hypotheses made in the 1960 volume and neatly captured by Kuznets are found to be vindicated,as others have to be reformulated:small developed open countries have been able to overcome the apenalties of smallness^thanks to globalization,and large countries have relied on economies of scale to develop an endogenous domestic growth.Both strategies have been successful enough that large and small countries can not be distinguished in terms of their economic performance.Still,their preferred agrowth strategy^differ,as their seeming ability to implement structural change.As regards“governance strategy”,small nations,homogeneity has been blurred by migration flows and the only fragmentation difference remaining between large and small nations is that of religion diversity.Hence social diversity can not account for the substantially lower governance performance and higher income inequalities observed in large countries,all the more than confidence and trust among citizens do not appear significantly higher in small nations.Finally,the paper briefly explores some new country size related puzzles,unheard of in 1960,that have emerged since then:micro-states,giant states and“embedded states”(i.e.economic regionalization).