摘要
随着国内玉米“去库存”政策的持续实施,以及受中国对澳大利亚进口大麦进行反倾销和反补贴立案调查的影响,2018年,中国大麦进口量同比大幅下降,月度进口量波动明显;进口市场集中度较高,第一大进口来源国仍然是澳大利亚。在国际大麦价格整体上涨的影响下,2018年中国大麦国内价格明显上涨,且高于国际价格,国内外大麦价差明显。在综合考虑国内外大麦供求形势、价格走势、贸易政策的基础上,预计2019年中国大麦进口规模稳中有降。
With the continuous implementation of destocking policy with domestic maize,and the impact of China's anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Australian barley imports,the import volume of barley fell sharply in China in 2018 compared to 2017,and monthly import volume fluctuated significantly.The import market was relatively concentrated and the largest source of barley import was still Australia.Under the influence of the overall rise in international barley prices,the price of China's barley in 2018 increased significantly and was higher than international barley prices with obvious price gap between domestic and foreign barley.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand,price trends,trade policy at home and abroad,the authors predicted that China's barley imports would stabilize with slight decline in 2019.
作者
刘吉龙
李先德
Liu Jilong;Li Xiande(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)
出处
《农业展望》
2019年第5期82-86,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家大麦青稞产业技术体系建设专项经费项目(CARS-05-06A-01)
国家自然科学基金项目(71473253)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2019-06)
关键词
大麦
产业发展
进口规模
进口市场集中度
barley
industrial development
import scale
concentration of import markets
