中国金融风险“突变”之源

The Source of China’s Financial Risk “Mutation”

中央经济工作会议指出,要防范金融市场异常波动和共振。关于中国金融市场异常波动和共振的症结,本文提出了有别于“分业论”和“混业论”的第三种观点——“突变论”,即金融风险出现了突变。特征之一,短期存款与定期存款的周期性波动规律被打破了,“M1增速/M2增速”先是在低位徘徊,继而在高位运行;特征之二,消费品价格指数与资本品价格指数的同涨同跌规律不复存在,前者波澜不惊,后者大起大落。究其原因,民间资金大规模地脱离了实体经济,并绕开了消费品,涌向了投资品,且在不同的虚拟部门来回游走,进而导致资产价格的繁荣与衰退景象在楼市、股市、债市、汇市、信贷等领域轮番上演。这就意味着,仅仅依靠编制更加严密的混业监管网络是不够的,不足以抵御金融监管对象由“猫”变“虎”后的冲击力,还需要更大范围、更深层次的改革。

The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to guard against abnormal fluctuations and resonance in financial markets.Regarding the causes for China's financial market and the crux of resonance,this paper proposes a third viewpoint that is different from the"division theory"and"mixture theory"-"mutation theory",that is,the financial risk has shown sudden mutation.Characteristic one,the cyclical fluctuations of short-term deposits and-fixed-time deposits have been broken.The"MI growth rate"firstlylingered in lower position and then moved in the higher position.Characteristic two,the consumer price index and the capital price index no longer follow the rule of synchronized rise or fall,with the former remaining stable while the latter showing dramatic changes.The reason is that private funds have seceded from the real economy on a large scale,and have circumvented consumer goods to flock to investment products,wandering in different virtual sectors,which led to the prosperity and decline of assct priccs in the property market,stock market,bond markets,foreign exchange markets,and credit market.This means that it is not enough to rely solely on the preparation of a more rigorous mixed supervision network.It is not enough to resist the impact of the financial regulatory objcct turning from"cat"into"tiger".It requires more extensive and deeper reform.