基于GWR模型的长株潭地区县级乡村重构?时空格局及城镇驱动力研究

Reconstruction of the spatial-temporal structure and urban driving forces in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas by the GWR model

以长株潭地区县级行政区域为例,摒弃局限于乡村内部变量的常规研究思路,在构建乡村重构度评价体系的基础上,主要运用地理加权回归分析(GWR)等方法研究乡村重构时空格局及其城镇驱动力。研究结果表明:1)2010-2016年间,长株潭地区乡村重构度在研究期内县均增长7.55个百分点,呈现“两头窄,中间宽”的梭形分异发展结构;2)乡村重构度和城镇四项驱动因子均具有高水平类聚现象,乡村重构发展与受城镇驱动作用均存在较强的地域相关性和空间异质性;3)研究区北部发达地区乡村重构格局受城镇化、生活水平驱动作用较强,南部远离城市核心地区受投资建设水平和市场发展水平的提升作用更加明显。新时期,长株潭地区不同乡村格局的重构要基于城镇驱动力的差异程度采取差异化的发展措施,特别是对于落后地区的乡村重构要更加重视乡村资源潜力和城镇发展实力的统筹推进。

Taking the administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas as examples, this paper built an evaluation system by applying the Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) model to study the reconstruction of the spatial-temporal structure for the selected administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas and examined the urban driving forces. Results show that the degree of rural reconstruction has increased by 7.55% during the years of 2010-2016, and its distribution is a normal distribution. Both the degree of rural reconstruction and four factors in urban driving forces generally had high levels in cluster analysis, and they were significantly different in various regions. The degree of rural reconstruction was primarily dominated by urbanization level and people's living standards in these developed regions in the north, whereas it was mainly affected by the levels of investment and market development in the southern regions. In summary, this paper suggests that different regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou- Xiangtan rural areas should adopt different approaches and try to promote the integrated development in rural areas incorporating resource potentials and the unique strength for each region.