农业经济发展、环境规制与农业碳排放相关性的协整检验

Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship of Agricultural Economic Development,Environmental Regulation and Agricultural Carbon Emission

基于2001-2016年我国农业经济发展和农业能源消费数据,构建回归方程模型,运用Johansen协整分析、残差分析和Granger因果关系检验方法,实证分析农业经济增长、环境规制与农业碳排放的相互作用机制。研究结果显示:农业经济发展对农业碳排放存在正向促进作用,环境规制对农业碳排放起到有限的弱化效应;农业经济发展是农业碳排放增加的原因,短期内,环境规制与农业碳排放的因果关系不明确,长期来看,环境规制是农业碳减排的原因,但具有一定的时滞效应。

Based on the data of agricultural economic development and agricultural energy consumption from 2001 to 2016 in China,We construct equation model,use Johansen cointegration analysis,residual analysis and Granger causality test,to empirically analyze the relationship of agricultural economic development,environmental regulation and agricultural carbon emission.The results show that agricultural economic development has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emission,but environmental regulation has a limited weaken effect on agricultural carbon emission;agricultural economic development is the causality for the increase of agricultural carbon emission,in the short term,the causal relationship between environmental regulation and agricultural carbon emission is not clear,in the long term,environmental regulation is the cause of carbon emission reduction in agriculture;environmental regulation has time delay effect.