中国县级海岛综合承载水平测度及时空差异分析

Measurement and Spatial-temporal Differences of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Level at County Islands in China

运用PSR模型从经济、社会、生态3个方面选取28个指标,构建县级海岛综合承载评价指标体系,测度中国12个县级海岛2009—2017年间的综合承载水平,对其承载水平时空分异特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)各县级海岛综合承载力阶段性特征显著,综合承载力水平在2009—2017年区域差异明显并在波动中上升,近两年相对差异有缓慢扩大的趋势,整体发展态势较好;(2)县级海岛综合承载力空间分异明显,承载水平呈中间高南北低、从中部向南北减弱的特点,空间分布呈现出区域化和集群化特征;(3)县级海岛综合承载力的结构随时间推移有不断优化向好的趋势,各结构之间在发展路径上呈提升状态,其协调度不断波动,发展向正规合理化时期靠近。

This study uses the PSR model to select 28 indicators from 3 aspects of economic and social ecology, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the comprehensive carrying capacity of the county island, and uses a variety of evaluation methods to measure the comprehensive carrying capacity of the 12 county islands in China during-2009-2017, and analyses the spatial and temporal characteristics of its bearing level. The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity of the county islands is characterized by a significant stage characteristic. The comprehensive bearing capacity of the 12 county islands is obvious in the period of 2009-2017, the difference is rising in the fluctuation, the relative difference has a slow trend in the last two years, the overall development trend is better, and the spatial differentiation of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the county island is different. It is obvious that the level of carrying capacity is characterized by the middle high north and south low, and the spatial distribution is characterized by regionalization and clustering;the comprehensive carrying capacity of the county island has a continuous optimization trend.