2018年影响河南的“温比亚”与“摩谒”台风大暴雨过程对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Between the Typhoon Rumbia and Yagi in Henan Province of 2018

利用常规天气实况与气象数值模式资料,对201818号台风“温比亚”和201814号台风“摩谒”的天气形势、物理量及数值模式预报情况进行了对比分析,结果表明:台风登陆后,在200hPa风场与副热带高压西侧气流共同引导下,“温比亚”深入河南中部,并在河南滞留近40h,造成河南大暴雨和局部特大暴雨;“摩谒”在安徽折向,中心经河南商丘进入山东,仅对河南商丘造成部分暴雨和局部大暴雨;200hPa风场风向的转变与台风低压折向时间有较好的对应,200hPa风场风力减弱,与台风移速减缓对应;“温比亚”过程湿层明显较“摩谒”深厚,低层水汽通量是“摩谒”过程的2倍;“温比亚”过程以持续稳定性降水为主,充沛的水汽由东风、东南风和南风急流持续向雨区输送;“摩谒”过程降水主要为不稳定性降水,并仅有一条东南风急流水汽输送通道;“温比亚”过程大气可降水量达到78mm,极端降水特征明显;数值模式预报检验中,EC、T639模式对“温比亚”在河南长时间滞留都做出较好的预报,其降水预报与实况较为接近;“摩谒”过程中,EC与T639模式路径预测较实况明显偏西,系统偏强,指导性较差;日本数值模式对两次台风路径预测都较实况略偏东,但相对稳定,台风中心风力与降雨强度都偏弱,在未来参考时可适当调整。

Based on the conventional observation and numerical prediction mode of typhoon Rumbia(201818)and typhoon Yagi(201814),we did the comparative analysis. The results suggested:after typhoon Rumbia was landed, under the guidance of upper level jet at 200 hpa and the airflow on the west side of the subtropical high,typhoon Rumbia went deep into central Henan and stayed for nealy 40 hours,which caused the heavy rains and severe torrential rains in Henan. Typhoon Yagi was folded in Anhui,and the center was entered Shandong through Shangqiu of Henan,which caused only some heavy rain,and local heavy rains in Shangqiu of Henan. The change of wind direction at 200 hpa had a good correspondence typhoon with the typhoon at low pressure and deflection time. The wind speed at 200 hpa was weaken of corresponding to slowdown of velocity. Rumbia had more deeper moist layer. The low-level water vapar flux was more than twice that of Yagi. Rumbia was dominated by continuous and stable precipitation. The abundant water vapor was continuously transported to rain area by the easterly,southeast and southerly jets,while Yagi had the unstable precipitation characteristics,which only had one southeast jet to transport water vapor. We fonnd the recipitable water in Rumbia was up to 78 mm and the feature of extreme precipitation was obvious. To evaluate the prediction from numerical prediction mode,we could see the EC and T639 models made a good forecast for the typhoon Rumbia center in Henan for a long time,especially EC prediction of track was very similar to the observation,so its precipitation prediction had a good guiding role. The track of Yagi during Henan and Anhui,EC and T639 were both had the large divergence, poor stability,and far from the observation. The Japanese model was performed better,but the intensity was obviously weak. The wrong prediction of track and intensity was the main reason for the wrong forecast of Yagi process in Henan.