“省内单列”省直管县新模式的财政效应研究——基于河南省改革试点的实证分析

Study on the Financial Effect of the New Pattern of Province Managing County: Counties Specifically Designated in the Provincial Plan ——Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Reform Pilot of Henan Province

随着地方行政管理体制改革的推进,省直管县改革向纵深发展。作为改革的新尝试,“省内单列”省直管县模式的财政效果如何还未有研究进行系统分析。本文基于河南省2007-2016年108个县的面板数据,利用双重差分方法,从静态和动态两个角度对“省内单列”省直管县改革新模式的财政效应进行了实证分析。研究发现,改革从整体上提高了试点县的人均财政收支水平,但短期内扩大了财政缺口,加重了试点县财政负担;动态DID模型分析表明,改革对试点县人均财政收支和财政缺口的影响渐趋增强。为此,本文提出了优化“省内单列”省直管县改革模式的相关政策建议。

With the advance of the reform of local administration system,the reform of province managing county has developed in depth.As a new attempt of reform,no systematic analysis has been made on the financial effect of the "counties specifically designated in the provincial plan" direct provincial management of counties.Based on the 108 counties of Henan province in 2007-2016 panel data,using the Difference in Difference method,from the dynamic and static aspects,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the financial effect of "Counties specifically designated in the provincial plan" reform.It is found that the reform has raised the level of per capita fiscal revenue and expenditure in pilot counties on the whole,but has widened the financial gap and increased the financial burden in pilot counties in the short term.The dynamic model analysis shows that the reform has an increasing impact on the per capita fiscal revenue and expenditure and financial gap of the pilot counties,and the financial effect is increasingly prominent.