外部冲击对我国肉类价格的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

Impact of external shocks on meat prices in China: An empirical analysis based on SVAR model

为探究外部因素对我国肉类价格波动造成的冲击,基于2006-01—2016-12的月度数据,采用SVAR模型从供给、需求和货币3方面研究了外部冲击因素对我国主要肉类价格的影响。结果表明:除肉类自身价格影响外,汇率对各肉类价格的影响最为显著,其余外部冲击因素对各肉类品种影响程度存在差异;供给因素方面,国际肉类价格对国内肉类价格的影响已不容忽视,尤其是对国内猪肉及牛肉价格影响最为明显;需求因素方面,宏观经济发展所带动的需求增加对国内肉类价格,特别是国内羊肉及牛肉价格具有重要影响;货币因素方面,国内外货币流动性水平对国内羊肉和牛肉价格均有明显冲击。

In order to explore the impact of external factors on China’s meat price,this study selected monthly data from January 2006 to December 2016,and used SVAR model to study the impact of external shocks on China’s major meat prices from three aspects including supply,demand and currency.The results showed that:Except for the price of meat itself,the exchange rate had the most significant impact on the price of meat,while the other external shocks had different effects on the meat varieties;In terms of supply factors,the impact of international meat prices on domestic meat prices could not be ignored,especially for domestic pork and beef prices;In terms of demand factors,the increasing demand driven by macroeconomic development had an important impact on domestic meat prices,especially the prices of mutton and beef;In terms of monetary factors,besides the exchange rate shocks,the domestic and foreign monetary liquidity level had a significant impact on the domestic mutton and beef prices.