基于零膨胀模型的武汉市女性人工流产次数影响因素分析

Analysis on the influencing factors of the risks of induced abortion frequency among women in Wuhan City with the zero-inflate model

目的了解武汉市女性人工流产次数的影响因素,为相关研究提供方法学参考,并为有效降低人工流产率提供科学依据。方法利用2016年武汉市孕前优生健康检查资料,对参检女性的人工流产次数构建零膨胀模型,分析人工流产次数的影响因素。结果24732名参检女性中流产0次的有17489人(占70.71%),存在零膨胀现象。零膨胀模型结果显示,年龄、户籍、职业、现有子女数、夫妻年龄差距、吸烟/饮酒是影响有无流产经历的因素;年龄越大、户籍为农村、职业为农民/工人、现有子女数越多、夫妻年龄差距越大、吸烟/饮酒的女性发生人工流产的可能性更大。女性受教育程度、职业、现有子女数、有无避孕措施均是影响人工流产次数多少的重要因素;受教育程度低、职业为农民/工人、现有子女数多、无避孕措施女性人工流产期望次数多。结论零膨胀模型用于分析人工流产次数相关因素优于传统模型;相关部门在制定政策降低人工流产率和重复人工流产率时应重点关注户籍为农村、职业为农民/工人、受教育程度低、吸烟/饮酒和无避孕措施的女性。

Objective To explore the risk factors of induced abortion frequency among women in Wuhan City as well as to provide methodology reference for related research and provide scientific basis to reduce induced abortion rate effectively. Methods The data of pre-pregnancy health examination of Wuhan City in 2016 were used to accomplish the zero-inflate model to explore the affecting factors about abortion frequency. Results Among 24 732 women, 17 489 (70.71%) women had not experienced induced abortion, existing zero expansion. Zero-inflate model analysis showed that women who were older, registered in rural areas, worked as farmers or workers, had more children, had more age gaps between husband and wife, reported smoking or drinking were more likely to report abortions. Women with low education, working as farmers or workers, having more children, without contraception had more expected abortions frequency. Conclusion Zero-inflate model has decisive advantages when applied to analyze associated factors with induced abortion frequency. Relevant departments need to take measures targeting on women registering in rural areas, working as farmers or workers, with low education, smoking or drinking, without contraception, in order to reduce the induced abortion rate and the repeated abortion rate.