考虑产能约束的新产品与旧产品预售策略研究

Advance Selling Strategies of New Products and Old Products Considering Capacity Constraints

预售商品种类繁多,可分为从未上市过的新产品和已经上市过旧产品。面对不同类型的产品,根据消费者效用理论,消费者可能做出不同的决策。研究在产能约束的前提下,零售商销售不同类型产品的最优预售策略问题。结果表明,新产品的最优预售策略取决于正常销售价格,旧产品的最优预售策略受正常销售价格与消费者构成的共同影响,且前者的影响作用大于后者。较低的正常销售价格或较大的高估值消费者比例增大了消费者在正常销售期购买的缺货风险,零售商应采取溢价预售策略,否则应采取折价预售策略。此外将新产品和旧产品的最优预售策略对比发现,利用消费者对产品估值的不确定性,新产品预售比旧产品预售更具优势。

As advance sale is more and more common in e-commerce,the types of advance sale goods are also expanded from the initial housing,books,air tickets,etc.to a wide range of products such as electronics,fashion,home appliances and fruits.Advance sale goods can be divided into two types:new products and old products.The new products refer to products that have never been released before.In order to know the market demand and prepare for the official sale,merchants often advance sell new products.The old products refer to those products that have been listed before and whose consumers have complete information about them.However,due to the long lead time in production and the insufficient supply of raw materials,the old products often go out of stock.In order to obtain funds in advance or reduce costs,the merchants adopt advance sale Back to the market.Facing with different types of advance sale products,consumers may have different buying behavior.How retailers adjust their advance sales strategy for maximum benefit is the main issue for this article.Researching angles on the type of product,the article divided the advance sale products into non-listed new products and the old products have been listed,consider the optimal advance sale strategies of products retailers who sell different types under the premise of the capacity constraints.Then by comparing the strategies of new products and old products,finally the conclusion is drawn by numerical experiment.The results show that the optimal presale strategy for new products depends on the normal sales price.The optimal presale strategy for old products is affected by the normal sales price and the consumers,and the former has more influence than the latter.The lower normal sales price or a larger proportion of high-valuation consumers increases the risk of out-of-stock purchases during the normal sales period,so retailers should adopt premium presale strategies,otherwise retailers should take discount presale strategies.In addition,by compare the optimal advance sale strategies of new products and old products,it shows that new products have more advantages than old products to take advance sale strategy,because new products can take the advantage of the uncertainty of the consumers’ valuation.The research results have a certain reference value to the real retailers to formulate the advance sale strategy.