考虑天气不确定性的太阳能供热系统等效设计容量计算方法

Calculation Method of Equivalent Design Capacity for Solar Heating System Considering Weather Uncertainty

在能源规划阶段,由于太阳能供热系统的可变性和不确定性,往往不计太阳能的供能量,全部用辅助能源满足用户供能需求,这将会导致系统过大从而投资增加。因此,本文提出等效设计容量的概念及其计算流程,用以评估太阳能采暖系统的容量价值,从而降低辅助能源容量。本文利用天津市1991-2010年实际气象数据,通过Energyplus和TRNSYS仿真实现对其某办公建筑太阳能供暖系统的可靠性评估,计算得到设计可靠度下的等效设计容量。应用上述方法,在99.6%设计可靠度条件下,案例办公建筑太阳能供暖系统等效设计容量为12.9kW,能够有效减少辅助热源设计容量的15.2%。

In the energy planning phase, due to the variability and uncertainty of solar heating systems, solar energy supply is often not counted, and the total use of auxiliary energy to meet user energy supply needs will lead to an over-large system and therefore increased investment. Therefore, the concept of equivalent design capacity and its calculation process are proposed to evaluate the capacity value of solar heating system, thereby reducing the auxiliary energy capacity. Based on the actual meteorological data from 1991 to 2010 in Tianjin city, the reliability evaluation of solar heating system of one office building was realized by energy plus and TRNSYS simulation, and the equivalent design capacity under the design reliability was calculated. Using the above method, under 99.6 % design reliability, the equivalent design capacity of the solar heating system in the case building is 12.9 kW, which can effectively reduce the design capacity of the auxiliary heat source by 15.2 %.