中国保险业的增长源泉及动力转换——基于DEA-Malmquist方法的分析

The Growth Drivers and Driving Power Conversion for China′s Insurance Industry——An analysis based on DEA-Malmquist method

为了研究中国保险业的增长质量,本文对保险业的增长进行分解,并测算了增长驱动的贡献。本文采用DEA非参数方法,分两个期间实证考察2008 -2016年保险业的增长源泉及动力,并将保险业的产出增长分解为创新驱动和要素驱动两部分,测算了保险业在两个考察期间的动力转换。研究发现:相比2013年、2016年财产险机构发展的单因素驱动的态势更加明显,创新的重点从效率提升向技术进步转变;人身险机构由单因素驱动向要素、创新双驱动转换,从过度依赖要素驱动的增长模式向创新驱动转移,技术效率和技术进步发挥的作用更加明显,多数人身险机构技术进步的增长贡献上升,而效率提升的增长贡献减小。本文认为我国保险业正处于数量型增长模式向质量提升型增长模式的转变阶段,建议监管部门制定适应性的监管政策,财产险机构应将创新的重点集中在效率的提升,提高经营管理水平,人身险机构应将创新同时集中在效率提升和技术进步两个方面,稳固要素和创新双驱动的增长模式。

The paper decomposed the growth of China’s insurance sector in order to study the quality of its growth. Based on the DEA non-parametric method,it empirically studied the growth drivers of the sector from 2008 to 2016 at two phases,and disintegrated the output growth into innovation-driven growth and factor-driven growth. It also measured the driving power conversion of the insurance industry between the two inspection phases. The study found that compared with 2013,the single factor-driven tendency was more obvious in 2016 for property insurance companies,and the focus of innovation shifted from efficiency improvement to technological progress. Life insurance companies began to shift from single factor-driven to factor and innovation dual factors-driven,and from a growth model excessively dependent on factor-driven to an innovation-driven growth model,with technical efficiency and technological progress playing an increasingly important role. For most personal insurance companies,the contribution of technological advancement kept rising,while the growth contribution of efficiency enhancement decreased. The article held that China′s insurance industry was at the stage of transition from a quantitative growth model to a quality-enhancing growth model. Therefore,it recommended that the regulatory authorities should formulate adaptive regulatory policies. Property insurance companies should focus their innovation activities on efficiency enhancement and improving their management skills. Personal insurance companies should focus their innovations on both efficiency improvement and technological advancement,and strengthen the growth model of both factor-driven and innovation-driven.