中国煤炭铁路运输业发展评价及预测分析

Development evaluation and forecast analysis of China's coal railway transportation industry

铁路是我国最主要的煤炭运输方式,将因子分析与熵权值和TOPSIS相结合,对1998—2017近20年的16项相关运输指标的数据进行分析。以熵值法的差异系数对主因子的方差贡献率和因子得分系数进行调整,消除指标间多重共线性及指标权重不确定问题,从而构造加权规范矩阵,并计算出每年的因子综合得分与理想解的相对贴近度,以贴近度的测算评价其发展并预测趋势。实证研究表明,该方法可以有效消除指标间的多重共线性,合理为指标赋予权重,得到更为客观的评价结果,建立多元回归预测模型可靠、有效。

Railway is the most important coal transportation mode in China. Combining factor analysis with entropy weight and TOPSIS, the data of 16 relevant transportation indicators in 1998-2017 in the past 20 years was analyzed. The variance coefficient of the entropy method was used to adjust the variance contribution rate and factor score coefficient of the main factor, eliminating the multi-collinearity between indicators and the uncertainty of index weights, thus constructing the weighted norm matrix and calculating the annual factor score and ideal. The relative closeness of the solution was evaluated by the measure of closeness and its trend is predicted. The empirical research showed that this method can effectively eliminate the multicollinearity between indicators, give weights to the indicators reasonably, obtain more objective evaluation results, and establish a multivariate regression prediction model that is reliable and effective.