基于CGE模型的煤炭价格波动传导效应研究

Research on coal price fluctuation conduction effect based on CGE model

煤炭是我国最重要的基础能源,在生产和能源消费中占重要的作用。利用CGE模型研究了我国煤炭价格变化对能源需求总量及结构、电力生产总量及结构、GDP与部门的产出以及能耗及碳排放的影响,构建我国CGE模型,研究相关变量的影响效应。在此基础上对我国宏观经济以及煤炭价格的波动影响政策提出了建议。

Coal is the most important basic energy source in China and plays an important role in production and energy consumption. This paper used the CGE model to study the impact of China’s coal price changes on total energy demand and structure,total electricity production and structure,GDP and sector output,energy consumption and carbon emissions,and China’s CGE model was built to study the impact of related variables. On this basis,suggestions were made on China’s macroeconomic and coal price fluctuations.