黄河兰州段突发水污染事故级别预测

Prediction of Sudden Water Pollution Accident in Lanzhou Section of Yellow River Basin Based on HDE

突发水污染事故威胁人类健康,破坏生态环境。为了降低黄河兰州段突发水污染事故的损失,对突发水污染事故进行级别预测。采用PSR模型建立评价指标体系,通过主客观结合的AHP-熵权法确定各指标权重,运用和谐度方程(HDE)综合评价的方法,根据兰州段突发水污染事故评价指标数据,确定突发水污染事故级别。结果表明:黄河兰州段突发水污染事故和谐度为-0.078,属于重大事故级别(Ⅱ级),符合实际情况。黄河沿岸企业类型、水质类别、事故应急处理机制分别为压力、状态、响应指标中权重最大的影响因素,应重点关注其对黄河水环境的影响,从而全面把控黄河水环境。

Sudden water pollution accidents threaten human health and destroy the ecological environment.In order to reduce the huge losses caused by sudden water pollution accidents in Lanzhou section of the Yellow River,it predicted the levels of sudden water pollution accidents.The PSR model was used to establish the evaluation index system,the weight of each index was determined by the AHP-Entropy weight method combining subjective and objective,and the level of sudden water pollution accident was determined according to the evaluation index data of sudden water pollution accident in Lanzhou section by the comprehensive evaluation method of harmony degree equation(HDE).The results show that the harmony degree of sudden water pollution accidents in the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River is-0.078,which is a major accident level(LevelⅡ),which is in line with the actual situation.The type of enterprises along the Yellow River,the water quality of the Yellow River and the emergency response mechanism are the most influential factors in the stress,status,and response indicators.The impact on the Yellow River water environment should be focused on,so as to comprehensively control the Yellow River water environment.