基于M-K检验和信息熵的乌鲁木齐市降水时空变化分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Precipitation in Urumqi Based on M-K Test and Information Entropy

近半世纪以来,乌鲁木齐市气温呈显著升高趋势,由西伯利亚高压与西风环流异常导致干旱、暴雪、冰雹等灾害频现。以1951年~2017年乌鲁木齐市水资源相关资料为基础降水资料,运用回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验法定量研究该市来水资源变化趋势与倾向斜率。结果表明,近67年乌鲁木齐市水资源总量呈弱的增加趋势,其倾向斜率为0.0531亿m^3/a,并达到显著水平;突变检验表明,1980年为其突变点,由减少趋势突变为增加趋势。受全球气候变化与人口增加的影响,乌鲁木齐市降水量与气温同步增高,区域蒸散量较大,导致水资源增加趋势不明显。结果可为该地区水资源利用与居民生产生活提供依据。

In the past half century,the temperature in Urumqi has increased significantly.The high temperature and westerly circulation anomalies in Siberia have led to frequent disasters such as drought,blizzard and hail.Based on the water resources related data of Urumqi City from 1951 to 2017,the regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test method were used to quantitatively study the trend and trend slope of water resources in the city.The results show that in the past 67 years,the total water resources in Urumqi showed a weak increase trend,and the slope of the trend was 5.31 million m^3/a,which reached a significant level.The mutation test showed that the mutation point in 1980 was abruptly changed from decreasing trend to increasing trend.Affected by global climate change and population growth,the precipitation and temperature in Urumqi increased simultaneously,and the regional evapotranspiration was larger,increasing trend of water resources is not obvious.The results can provide a basis for water resources utilization and residents'production and life in the region.