四川省农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应分析

Decoupling Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in Sichuan Province

在测算四川省1998-2016年农业碳排放量的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩模型探究四川省农业碳排放与农业经济之间的脱钩效应。结果发现:在1998-2016年间,四川省农业碳排放总量呈“缓慢上升-缓慢下降-逐渐平稳”的态势;而农业经济一直稳步增加,农业碳排放强度逐年减低。农业物资投入与农地利用和牲畜养殖是四川省两大农业碳源,具体分析,翻耕、化肥、牛和猪对农业碳排放贡献最大。1999-2016年四川省农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩状态主要表现为强脱钩、弱脱钩和扩张连接,但2006年后主要为强脱钩。根据结论,提出四川省农业碳减排建议。

This paper studies the decoupling effect between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development in Sichuan province based on the estimation of agricultural carbon emissions in 1998-2016.The results shows that the total agricultural carbon emissions showed a trend of “slow increase - slow decline - gradually stable”,but the agricultural economy had been steadily increasing and the carbon intensity of agriculture had been reduced year by year in Sichuan province during the period from 1998 to 2016.The agricultural inputs and agricultural land use,and livestock breeding are two major agricultural carbon sources in Sichuan province.Specifically,tillage,fertilizer,cattle and pigs contributed the most to agricultural carbon emissions.From 1999 to 2016,the decoupling status between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development are mainly characterized by strong decoupling,weak decoupling and extended connection,and strong decoupling is the main type after 2006.According to the conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are proposed to reduce agricultural carbon emissions in Sichuan province.