淮南市2001-2015年可持续发展研究——基于改进的生态足迹模型

On the Sustainable Development of Huainan City from 2001 to 2015 Based on improved Ecological Footprint

近年来,生态足迹模型在可持续发展评价中得到了广泛应用。以淮南市为研究对象,运用区域性的均衡因子和产量因子,对淮南市2001-2015年的生态足迹(EF)、生态承载力(EC)、万元GDP生态足迹(GE)、生态赤字(ED)、生态可持续发展指数(ESI)进行了时间序列的测度和分析。结果表明:①生态足迹呈显著增加趋势,达到7.10hm2/人,可利用的生态承载力呈缓慢增加趋势,增加到0.11hm2/人;②随着经济的增长,万元GDP生态足迹呈下降趋势,虽然其资源利用率得到一定提高,但仍未达到安徽省的平均水平;③生态赤字从2001年至2014年在波动中增至最大值7.43hm2/人,2015年末降为6.99hm2/人,说明该区域资源供需矛盾仍十分尖锐;④生态可持续发展指数一直小于0.20,长期处于严重不可持续发展状态。最后提出了一些应对措施,研究结果可以为淮南市的生态文明实践、产业结构调整、可持续发展等提供决策依据。

Recently,the ecological footprint model has widely been used to assess regional sustainable development. Based on the Statistical Yearbook of Huainan city,this paper applies the improved ecological footprint model to the evaluate and study the sequence of the ecological footprint (EF),ecological bearing capacity (EC),ecological footprint of GDP (GE),ecological deficit (ED),and ecological sustainability index (ESI) of Huainan city from 2001 to 2015. The results show that:①The EF has significantly increased to 7.10 hm2/ person,while the available EC slowly increases to 0.11 hm2/ person.②With the growth of the economy,GE continues to decline. However,the resource use efficiency has been improved,it still hasn't reached the average level of Anhui province.③The ecological deficit from 2001 to 2014 shows the fluctuating growth to a maximum of 7.43 hm2 /person,and at the end of 2015 to 6.99 hm2 /person. It means that the study area has a very sharp contradiction between supply and demand.④The ecological sustainable development index has been below 0.20,which indicates the area has been in the serious and unsustainable development status for a long time. Finally,a series of measures are proposed. The results of this study provide scientific basis for the construction of ecological civilization,the transformation of consumption pattern and sustainable development of Huainan city.