威海市气象干旱对风疹发病影响的研究——基于分布滞后非线性模型

Study on the morbidity of rubella affected by meteorological droughts in Weihai:a distributed lag non-linear model

目的评价威海市气象干旱与风疹发病风险的关系。方法采用时间序列方法,基于分布滞后非线性模型对2005—2013年威海市风疹发病数据及同期干旱数据、气象数据进行回归分析。分析气象干旱对风疹发病影响的即时效应与滞后效应。结果威海市9年期间共计发病526人,年均发病率为2.18/10万。分布滞后非线性模型结果显示气象干旱对风疹发病的影响呈非线性关系,气象干旱在滞后2旬和3旬时,气象干旱导致的风疹发病增加,其RR值分别为1.11(95%CI:1.04～1.19)和1.10(95%CI:1.04～1.16);在滞后2～3旬时,其累计RR值最大(RR=1.09),但无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论气象干旱对风疹的发病影响存在着滞后性,可导致风疹发病风险增加。

Objective:To evaluate the relationship between meteorological droughts and the morbidity of rubella in Weihai.Methods: A regression analysis was built by the time-series analysis method between meteorological droughts,meteorological factors and rubella in Weihai from 2005 to 2013 on the basis of the distributed lag non-linear model in order to analyze the immediate effect and lag effect of meteorological droughts on the morbidity of rubella.Results: There were 526 reported cases of rubella in Weihai during the study period,with an average incidence of 2.18/105 .The model showed that the effect of meteorological droughts on rubella was nonlinear.The risk of rubella was increased after meteorological droughts,and the lagged periods were 2 and 3 ten-day.The RRs on rubella were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04~1.19) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04~1.16) at lagged 2nd and 3rd ten-days,respectively.Although strongest cumulative lag effects on rubella were observed at 2nd and 3rd ten-days (RR=1.09),there was no statistical significance ( P >0.05).Conclusion: The meteorological drought has a lag effect on the morbidity of rubella,and may increase risk of rubella in the study area.