基于STIRPAT模型的区域城市化碳排放影响因素差异分析

Variation Analysis of Regional Urbanization Carbon Emission Influence Factor Based on STIRPAT Model

研究7种不同城市化因素对二氧化碳排放的影响,包括人口,经济,能源强度,能源结构,能源清洁度,服务水平和研发强度,采用基于FE-DK回归模型的STIRPAT模型来评估不同元素对中国三大区域(高度城市化,发展中城市化和城市化相对落后区域)的碳排放影响。结果表明,服务业水平在高度城市化地区的产业发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用。此外,发展中的城市化地区人口因素的影响高于其他2个地区。同时,在城市化相对落后地区,提高化石燃料的使用效率比其他地区更为重要。总体而言,经济城市化是影响3个地区碳排放的最重要影响因素。具体的解决方案取决于不同区域的具体情况。

The impact of seven kinds of urbanization factors on the carbon dioxide emission is researched,including the population,economy,energy intensity,energy structure,energy cleanness,service level and R&D strength,and the STIRPAT model based on FE-DK regression model is adopted to evaluate the carbon emission impact of different factors on China's three regions(area with high urbanization,area with developing urbanization and area with relatively backward urbanization).The results show that the service industry level plays more and more important role in the industrial development in the highly-urbanized region.Besides,the influence of demographic factor in developing urbanization area is higher than that in two other areas.In the meantime,it is more important to improve the service efficiency of fossil fuel in the area with relatively backward urbanization than that in other areas.In general,the economic urbanization is the most important influence factor of influencing the carbon emission in three regions.The specific solution depends on the specific condition in different areas.