碳排放交易制度下的低碳经济发展——基于非期望DEA与DID模型的分析

Low-Carbon Economy Development Under the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)——An Analysis Based on Undesired DEA and DID Models

利用Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法测算我国2004-2016年低碳经济全要素生产率增长,在测算出各省份低碳经济全要素生产率增长的基础上,利用DID(diffelence in difference)模型检验碳排放交易制度对低碳经济全要素生产率增长的政策效应.通过模型检验的结果分析,得出碳排放交易制度对发展低碳经济起到正向作用的结论,其中主要是由于碳排放交易制度提高了技术效率,从而促进低碳经济增长.但是,由于碳排放交易制度在我国的推行尚处于初级阶段,其对发展低碳经济的作用较小.并且在对政策效应进行时间趋势检验时发现,政策效应呈现出倒"U"型结构,由此说明政策效应有一定的滞后性,并且伴随着时间的推移有所减弱.该文提出应从扩大碳排放交易范围、规范政府行为以及综合多种减排方式等方面促进低碳经济发展.

The Malmquist-Luenberger index method was used to measure the low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth in 2004-2016. Based on the calculation of low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth of each province, the DID model was used to test the carbon emission trading scheme for low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth. Through the analysis of the results of the model test, it was concluded that the carbon emission trading scheme played a positive role in the development of a low-carbon economy. The main reason was that the carbon emission trading scheme improved the technical efficiency, thus promoting the growth of the low-carbon economy. However, the implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme in China was still in its infancy, and its role in the development of a low-carbon economy was relatively small. A time trend test of the policy effect found that the policy effect exhibited an inverted "U"-type structure, which showed that the policy effect had a certain lag and was weakened with the passage of time. Finally, it was proposed that the development of the low-carbon economy should be promoted from the aspects of expanding the scope of carbon emission trading, regulating government behavior, and integrating multiple emission reduction methods.