制衡中国?——中美日印在缅甸影响力变迁分析(2010～2018)

Balancing China? An Assessment of the Fluctuating Influence of China,America,Japan and India in Myanmar( 2010-2018)

基于高层互访频率和非对称依赖的量化测度分析,本文对以往大国与缅甸关系研究认知中“制衡中国影响力”这一假定或结论进行检验,并考察中、美、日、印在缅甸影响力的变迁。结果显示,中国在缅甸的影响力的确呈下降趋势,但美国、日本和印度的影响力并没有显著提升,且三者在缅甸的影响力较为均衡。研究表明,缅甸利用其他大国在战略上制衡中国,阻滞中国在缅甸影响力进一步提升,同时利用其他威胁性较小的行为体如东盟、欧盟而非其他大国来填补中国影响力下降后留下的空间。这一现象并不符合经验研究中大国在其他区域或国家的影响力的“进—退”逻辑。在缅甸珍视独立、自主的行为特征影响下,中国周边参与竞争的行为体更为复杂,简单的“中、强、邻”理解和分析模式需要调整。

Based on a quantitative analysis of the volume of high level exchanges and asymmetric dependence between states,this article tests the assumption or conclusion of studies on major state relations with Myanmar that states seek to“balance China’s influence,”and further considers the fluctuating influence of China,the US,Japan and India in Myanmar.The findings illustrate that China’s influence in Myanmar is in fact on the decline,but that American,Japanese and Indian influence has not risen significantly,and that the three enjoy similar levels of influence.The research illustrates that Myanmar uses other major states to strategically balance China’s influence,and to prevent the expansion of Chinese influence in the country.At the same time,it also leverages the presence of other,non-threatening actors such as ASEAN,the European Union,and other small or medium sized states to fill the space left by the contraction of Chinese influence.As such,the reality does not match with the empirical research from other states or regions which points to a logic of one great state gaining influence at the loss of another.Influenced by the great importance that Myanmar places on its independence and autonomy,actors competing for influence in China’s periphery are increasingly complex,and the simple model of understanding based on“China,Great Powers and Neighboring States”needs to be adapted.