战略利己主义视角下的美印自由贸易协定前景分析

Strategic Egoism and Prospects for the US-India Free Trade Agreement

美国特朗普政府正在抛弃自由贸易政策,转为贸易保护主义和经济利己主义。在此背景下,美国却主动向印度提出制定美印自由贸易协定路线图。美国此举不仅具有强烈的经济利益诉求,还具有夯实“印太”战略的意图。面对以强调“美国第一”、绝对平等性互惠和严厉惩罚为特征的美国硬战略利己主义,持软战略利己主义的印度需从包括农业、防务安全、高科技和数字经济、双边投资及能源等潜在合作领域,评估印度能否支付得起美国所要求的回报以及合作收益是否高于回报代价。短期内,美印自由贸易协定的签署面临多重困难,但不可小觑其早期收获的成效和长远影响。

The Trump Administration is presently abandoning a free trade policy,and transitioning towards one of protectionist trade and economic egoism.Against this background however,the United States has also proactively put forward to India a roadmap to achieve a US-India Free Trade Agreement.This step is not only a result of tremendous economic interests,but also a means of advancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy.In the face of“America First,”absolute equal reciprocity,and the severe penalties that have become the core characteristics of America’s hard strategic self-interest approach,India has adopted a softer strategic approach.In each potential area of collaboration,including agriculture,preventative security,higher education,high-tech and digital economy,bilateral trade and energy cooperation,India must assess whether it can afford to pay for America’s asks and whether the benefits of cooperation are greater than the costs.Over the short term,many obstacles stand in the way of the US and India signing a free trade agreement,however we should not disregard either the possibility of early harvest or its long term impacts.