政策干预对国内外玉米价格传导的影响分析

Effect of Policy Intervention on Maize Price Transmission at Home and Abroad

采用非线性的马尔可夫机制转换模型分析政策干预对玉米价格跨国传导的影响,研究表明:实施贸易干预政策之后,中国和美国玉米市场的整合程度有所下降,政策的实施抑制了国际价格向国内市场的传导;临时收储政策实施也影响了国际玉米价格向国内传导;实行"市场定价、价格补分离"改革之后,国际玉米市场和国内玉米市场整合程度在大部分时期是增强的,即促进价格的传导。因此,需要完善以市场为导向的价格形成机制,同时储备应对价格波动的措施,运用边境政策做好进出口调控。

The nonlinear Markov mechanism transformation model is used to analyze the influence of policy intervention on the transnational transmission of maize price. The results show that the degree of integration between Chinese and American corn markets has decreased after the implementation of trade intervention policy. The implementation of the policy inhibits the transmission of international prices to the domestic market;The implementation of temporary storage policy also affected the transmission of international maize price to the domestic market;after the reform of"market pricing,separation of price and subsidy",the degree of integration between the international maize market and the domestic maize market is enhanced in most periods,that is,to promote the transmission of price. Therefore,it is necessary to perfect the market oriented price formation mechanism,to reserve measures to deal with price fluctuations,and to make import and export regulation by using border policy.