中国对外贸易内生型增长研究——以广东为例

Study on Endogenous Growth of China’s Foreign Trade——A Case Study of Guangdong

分析中国加入WTO以来,广东外贸增长方式转变的基础上,通过复杂性指数法、索罗余值法和回归分析法测算了技术进步对广东外贸增长的贡献率。从测算结果看,技术进步对广东外贸出口的增长效应半数以上为负值,且主要是依靠劳动力和资本推动,从而判断出广东的对外贸易还没有实现内生型增长,仍然是依靠固定资产和劳动力投入实现了出口量和出口额的增长。因此,广东要通过"干中学"和自主研发,积极推动产业升级转型,从而实现对外贸易内生型增长,加快贸易强省建设。

On the basis of the analysis of the changes of Guangdong’s international trade growth model since China’s accession to the WTO,this paper measures the contribution rate of the technological progress for Guangdong’s international trade growth by the complexity index method,Solow residual method as well as regression analysis method. From the above calculation,more than half of the growth effect of technological progress on the export of Guangdong’s foreign trade is negative,and it is mainly driven by labor and capital;for this reason,it is judged that the foreign trade of Guangdong has not achieved endogenous growth,and it is still dependent on the investment of fixed assets and labor to achieve the increase of export volume and amount. Therefore,Guangdong should actively promote the transformation of industrial upgrading through " learning by practicing" and independent R&D,so as to realize the endogenous growth of foreign trade and accelerate the construction of a powerful province in trade.