全球价值链背景下中美制造业双边贸易结构分析

Analysis of China-US Manufacturing Bilateral Trade Structure Based on Global Value Chain

利用WWZ法将2000-2014年中美制造业双边贸易总值分解,然后从增加值视觉剖析两国制造业双边贸易结构、比较优势及贸易互补变化。结果表明:美国对中国出口结构以中高端制造业为主,而中国对美国出口虽由低技术制造业为主转为中高端制造业为出口大宗,但美国依旧控制着中国高新技术产品生产链条;传统贸易统计口径严重高估中美贸易差额,补偿性及竞争性贸易逆差符合美国经济利益;中国低技术制造业比较优势下滑,但中美仍有贸易合作空间;中国作为美国高端制造业的"加工厂"为美国输入高额利润的模式仍将持续。

This paper firstly uses the WWZ method to decompose the total bilateral trade value of China-US manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,and then visually analyzes the bilateral trade structure,comparative advantage and trade complementarity between the two countries’ manufacturing industries from the perspective of value added. The results show that the US exports to China are dominated by medium and high-end manufacturing industries,while China’s exports to the United States have shifted from low-tech manufacturing to medium-to-high-end manufacturing,but the United States still controls China’s high-tech production chain. Traditional trade statistics seriously overestimate China-US trade balance,compensatory and competitive trade deficits are in line with US economic interests;the comparative advantage of China’s low-tech manufacturing declines,but China and the United States still have space for trade cooperation;the mode where China inputs high profits as a"processing plant"of high-end manufacturing industry for the United States will continue.