1980-2010江西省农业化肥施用量时空差异研究

Study on the Spatial and Temporal Disparities of Application Amount of Agricultural Chemical Fertilizer in Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2010

研究以江西省为研究区域,引入时空序列分析、空间自相关及Getis-Ord Gi^*冷热点分析等空间分析方法,分析近30年来各地区化肥施用总量时空差异及化肥施用强度的时空变化规律,结果表明:1)江西省化肥施用量在1980-1995年间总体上呈现快速增长趋势,1995年后化肥施用量缓慢增长,全省整体化肥施用量在区域上呈现高度集聚;2)赣州市和抚州市部分地区为近年来化肥施用增加的热点地区,上饶市等江西东北部农业欠发达地区化肥施用量增长缓慢;3)化肥施用强度大于225kg/hm2县域数量持续增加,高强度区县由早期的赣北地区向赣南地区扩张,鄱阳湖区长期处于高强度的化肥施用状态;4)从增长格局来看,赣州中部和南部县域化肥施用量增长速度较快,而赣州北部县域增长速度较慢。

The study takes Jiangxi Province as the research area, Methods including space sequence analysis, space autocorrelation and Getis-Ord Gi^* cold-hot-spot analysis were introduced, in order to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving types of the unit application quantity of chemical fertilizer on the agricultural land and the total fertilizer consumption across Jiangxi province over the past 30 years. The results showed that: 1) In total, the fertilizer consumption in Jiangxi province showed a rapid growth from 1980 to 1995. After 1995, the application rate of chemical fertilizer increased slowly. And the entire chemical fertilizer consumption in the province showed a high concentration among the regions;2) Hot spots where the application quantity of chemical fertilizer had increased a lot in recent years were Ganzhou and Fuzhou city, while cities located in north east area of Jiangxi, like Shangrao etc, experienced slow growth in chemical fertilizer application due to the underdeveloped agriculture;3) The amount of cities where the application intensity of chemical fertilizers become greater than 225 kg/hm 2 had continued to increase, and the high-intensity districts and cities turned out to expand from the northern area inchoately to the southern area of Jiangxi province. In particular, the Poyang Lake area had been in a state of high intensity in terms of the chemical fertilizer application for a long time;4)In terms of growth pattern, the application rate of chemical fertilizers in the central and southern counties of Ganzhou increased rapidly, while the growth rate in the northern counties of Ganzhou was slower.