基于前景理论的梯级水电站开发时序决策

Time Series Decision-making of Cascade Hydropower Station Development Based on Prospect Theory

为合理决策梯级水电站开发时序,综合运用优化调度模型与前景理论,建立了基于心理偏好下梯级水电站开发时序决策模型。首先,根据水电效益开发特征,分析发电量、最小出力对开发效益的影响,阐明决策者的心理改变机理;其次,提出考虑时间贴现效应的双目标调度收益偏好函数,引入变权理论,修正概率决策权重;最后,运用优化遗传算法求解调度方案并计算综合前景值,分析不同参照点偏好对决策的作用效果。案例分析验证了决策者偏好对开发时序的影响,表明梯级水电开发时序决策模型具有合理性。

To make a reasonable decision on the development timing of cascade hydropower stations,the optimal dispatching model and prospect theory are synthetically applied to establish a development timing decision model based on psychological preference.First,according to the characteristics of hydropower benefit development, the influence of generation capacity and minimum output on development benefit is analyzed,and the mechanism of the decision maker’s psychological change is clarified.Second,the double-objective dispatching benefit preference function is proposed and the variable weight theory is introduced to modify the probability decision weight.Finally,the optimal genetic algorithm used to solve the dispatching scheme and calculate the pre-synthesis weights.Scene value is used to analyze the effect of preference of different reference points on decision- making.The case study indicated that the A scheme should be selected when considering the overall balance and economy of the system,the C scheme should be chosen when the decision maker prefers maximum power generation,and the B scheme should be chosen when the decision maker prefers the output.Compared to the traditional decision-making evaluation,the influence of the decision maker's preference on the development sequence is further verified,which provides a theoretical basis for the study of cascade hydropower development decision-making under different preferences.