泽连斯基现象与乌克兰前景

The Zelenski Phenomenon and the Future of Ukraine

2019年乌克兰总统选举中政治素人泽连斯基高票胜选。泽连斯基现象反映出乌克兰选民求新求变的心理及钟摆效应,反映出地区差异对选举的影响有所弱化,西方对乌克兰内政的影响继续增强,俄罗斯的影响则趋于边缘化。未来,在政治领域,泽连斯基需要处理好与执政阶层不同力量、寡头、知识精英和基层民众的关系,在尊重地区诉求差异的基础上继续构建乌克兰的民族国家认同,处理好历史文化传统与现代民主国家构建之间的关系。在经济领域,泽连斯基需要通过推进司法公正改善投资环境,还需要稳妥实施改革举措以换取外部的资金支持。在外交领域,泽连斯基将继续推进加盟入约进程,与欧美的关系将继续加强,与俄罗斯的关系很难改善,但急剧恶化的可能性也不大。中乌关系将继续发展。

The 2019 presidential election in Ukraine has been won a landslide by the political outsider Viktor Zelenski. The Zelenski phenomenon reflected the psychology of seeking change of Ukrainian voters and the pendulum effect. It also show the weakening influence of regional differences on the election, the growing influence of the West on Ukraine’s internal affairs and the marginalization of Russia’s influence. In the political field, Zelenski needs to deal with the relationship between different forces of the ruling class, oligarchs, intellectual elites and grassroots people, continuing to build the national identity of Ukraine on the basis of respecting the differences of regional demands, and properly handling the relationship between the historical and cultural traditions and the construction of a modern democratic country. On the economic front, he needs to improve the investment climate by promoting judicial justice and to implement sound reforms in exchange for external financial support. On the diplomatic stage, president Zelenski should continue to advance the process of joining the EU and NATO, while to strengthen the relations with Europe and the United States. Although it is difficult to improve the relationship with Russia, but it is unlikely to deteriorate sharply in coming future. China-Ukrainian relations will develop further.