中国进口潜力:趋势、分布与源泉

The Potential of China's Imports: Trends, Distribution and Sources

扩大进口是新时代"开放发展"的重要举措,是满足人民美好需求的有效途径,科学且准确地测度中国进口潜力则显得格外重要。实证研究表明,同全球平均水平相比,中国进口潜力在趋势、分布和源泉三个方面呈现如下特点:其一,趋势方面,中国进口实现了进口不足到进口适度稍微过度的转变,但在消费品上存在一定进口潜力。其二,区域分布层面,中国对美国进口过度,欧盟适度,但对日本、亚洲四小龙和东盟国家进口不足,这说明未来中国进口潜力主要集中在亚洲内部,提升亚洲内部经济体之间的贸易便利化程度是应有之策。其三,源泉方面,中国进口数量过度,但进口广度和进口价格不足,这意味着中国可以通过改变进口增长方式实现进口潜力,提高居民福利。政策含义方面,一方面要认识到中国进口规模已经偏过度的客观事实;另一方面要看到进口结构性潜力特征,应该通过调整进口空间结构、进口增长模式来实现局部的进口潜力。

It is particularly important to measure scientifically and accurately the import potential of China. Empirical studies reveal that compared with the global average, China’s import potential has the following characteristics in terms of trends, distribution and sources. First, in terms of trends, China’s imports have achieved a modest transition from insufficient imports to moderately excessive imports, but there is huge import potential in consumer goods. Second,at the regional distribution level, China’s imports from the United States are excessive and the EU is modest, but the imports from Japan, the four Xiaolong and ASEAN countries are insufficient. This implies that China’s import potential is mainly concentrated in Asia in the future and China should facilitate the Asian intra-regional trade. Third, in terms of sources, China’s imports are excessive in terms of volumes, but they are insufficient in terms of import varieties and prices, which indicates that China can change its import growth pattern to achieve import potential and improve residents’ welfare. In terms of policy implications, on the one hand, we must recognize the objective fact that China’s import scale has been excessive;on the other hand, we must see the structural characteristics of imports. China should adjust its import space structure and import growth pattern to achieve the import potential in parts.