基于熊彼特创新周期理论的科技创新驱动经济增长景气机理研究

Research on the Mechanism of Economic Growth Driven by Scientific and Technological Innovation based on Schumpeterian Innovation Cycle Theory

基于熊彼特的创新周期诠释经济周期理论,本文对科技创新驱动经济增长景气的机理开展研究。运用OECD科技统计数据和合成指数方法构造五国科技创新景气指数(TCI),用其代表科技创新周期;运用GDP增长率数据构造GDP增长率换算指数(ECI),用其代表经济周期;对两个指数在中、短周期内的因果关系、时差关系、波动特征进行统计检验分析,验证熊彼特的创新周期诠释经济周期理论在中、短周期内的现实存在性,为下一步构造"基于景气状态的科技创新驱动经济增长指数"奠定坚实的数理基础。

Based on the theory of the innovation cycle to explain the economic cycle by Joseph Schumpeter, this paper studies the mechanism of economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation boom. The paper uses the OECD statistical data and the synthetic index method to construct the science and technology innovation prosperity index(TCI) to represent the cycle of scientific and technological innovation, using the GDP growth rate data to construct the GDP growth rate conversion index(ECI) to represent the economic cycle. The statistical analysis of causality, time difference and fluctuation characteristics of the two indexes in the short and medium period is conducted. The results verify the reality of the theory in the short and medium term and lay a solid mathematical foundation for the next step to build the economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation index based on boom.