金融化对经济增长的非线性影响研究

Research on the Non-linear Effect of Financialization on Economic Growth

纵观世界经济发展演变的进程,金融化是伴随市场经济发展和金融深化的必然趋势,具有普遍性和规律性。本文基于金融内生视角,构建最优金融化形成与经济增长的动态机制,对最优金融化的动态特征、偏离稳态及恢复机制进行分析,并进一步通过构建一个综合性的金融化指数,运用马尔科夫区制转移模型和门限回归模型实证分析金融化对经济增长影响的非线性特征,结果表明:(1)金融化对经济增长具有明显的"区制转移"特征;(2)金融化对经济增长存在明显的"双门限"效应。这两种非线性模型都能较好地解释近年来我国资金"脱实入虚"的现象。

Looking at the evolution of the world economy,financialization is an inevitable trend accompanied by the development of market economy and financial deepening.It has universality and regularity.From the financial endogenous perspective,this paper constructs a dynamic mechanism for optimal formation of financialization and economic growth,and analyzes the dynamic characteristics of optimal financialization,deviation from steady state and recovery mechanisms,and further builds a comprehensive financial index.Then applying MS model and TR model to empirically analyze the non-linear correlation between financialization and economic growth,the results show that:(1) The impact of financialization on economic growth has obvious "regional transfer" characteristics;(2) Financialization has obvious "double-threshold" effect on economic growth.Both of the two non-linear models can well explain the phenomenon of "shift from real economy to virtual economy" in our country in recent years.