中智FTA贸易与投资创造效应——基于合成控制法的因果分析

Trade and Investment Effects of FTA between China and Chile——Causality Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method

利用1992~2016年中国对138个国家的进出口贸易额、2003~2011年中国对97个国家的直接投资额以及2001~2011年中国吸收60个国家的直接投资额等相关数据,采用合成控制法,分析评估了中智自由贸易协定对中智间商品贸易和投资所产生的效应,并使用"安慰剂检验"和敏感性分析就结论的稳健性进行分析,最终得出了以下结论:中智自由贸易协定促进了中智间商品贸易的发展,存在贸易创造效应;中智自由贸易协定对中国向智利的直接投资影响不显著,对中国吸收智利的直接投资产生了负向抑制作用。

This article collects China's import and export data of 138 countries from 1992 to 2016,China's direct investment in 97 countries from 2003 to 2011,and China's actual foreign investment in 60 countries from 2001 to 2011.The article uses the synthetic control method to analyze and evaluate the effects of the free trade agreement on the trade and investment between China and Chile and uses the "placebo test" and sensitivity analysis.Finally,we got the following conclusion:China-Chile Free Trade Agreement promoted the development of commodity trade.There is a trade creation effect of FTA,the FTA has no significant effect on OFDI and negative impact on IFDI.