基于模糊层次分析法的地下通道改扩建工程施工风险动态评估研究与应用

Research and Application of Dynamic Assessment of Construction Risk in Underpass Reconstruction and Extension Project Based on FAHP

针对大城市地下通道改扩建工程的特点,提出了从既有结构安全风险、土方开挖风险和新建结构风险等方面进行识别的必要性。结合国内外相关研究成果,分析了监测指标和无监测指标的风险概率取值方法,构建了动态风险评估指标体系,认为采用模糊层次分析法可以实现不同层次风险事件的风险等级和工程总体风险等级,并结合施工阶段划分,形成了风险动态评估内容和方法。最后,结合实际案例,指出了地下水与不良地层风险、临时支撑风险、结构渗漏水风险和环境风险是地下通道改扩建工程施工的主要风险,为此,制订了相应的风险控制和应对措施。

According to the characteristics of underpass reconstruction and expansion projects in big cities,the necessity of identifying existing structural safety risk,earthwork excavation risk and new structural risk is put forward.Combining with the relevant research results at home and abroad,the risk probability value selection methods of monitoring indicators and non-monitoring indicators are analyzed,and a dynamic risk assessment index system is built.It is considered that the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) method can be used to achieve the assessment of the risk level of different levels of risk events and the overall risk level of engineering.Combining with the division of construction stages,the contents and methods of risk dynamic assessment are formed.Finally,combining with practical cases,it is pointed out that groundwater and adverse strata risk,temporary support risk,structural leakage risk and environmental risk are the main risks in the construction of underpass reconstruction and expansion project,and corresponding risk control measures and countermeasures are formulated.