基于改进AHP法与模糊可变集理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价

Evaluation of water bursting in coal seam floor based on improved AHP and fuzzy variable set theory

针对平顶山十三矿煤层底板突水灾害控制因素的模糊性,选取水文地质、地质构造、煤层开采条件作为评价矿区煤层底板突水的指标体系。利用分形理论对地质构造进行量化,应用改进层次分析法计算指标权重,基于模糊可变集理论对煤层底板突水危险进行识别。研究表明:十三矿构造复杂类型占42.6%,分形维数均值为1.36。己一、己二采区底板突水特征值均低于3.0,属于无突水危险区,与实际情况吻合;己三采区突水特征值在3.5~4.5之间,属于突水高危险区;己四采区突水特征值在2.5~3.5之间,属于中等突水危险区。可见,本文通过融合改进层次分析法与模糊可变集理论,使得矿井底板突水危险的评估结果准确性得到有效提高,从而为矿井底板突水危险性可靠评价提供新的理论支持。

In view of the ambiguity of the controlling factors of coal seam water bursting in Pingdingshan mine No.13, hydrogeology exploration, geological structure and coal mining conditions have been selected as the index system for evaluating water bursting from coal floor in the mining area. The fractal theory is used to quantify the geological structure;the improved analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weight, and the fuzzy variable set theory is used to identify the water inrush danger of the coal floor. The research has shown that the complex type of geological structure accounts for 42.6% in mine No.13, and the average fractal dimension is 1.36. The water bursting characteristic value is found to be less than 3.0 in Ji-1 and Ji-2 mining area, showing no risk of water bursting, which is consistent with the actual situation;the characteristic value of Ji-3 mining area is between 3.5-4.5, in the category of high risk of water bursting;the characteristic value of Ji-4 mining area is between 2.5-3.5, classified as medium risk of water inrush. It can be seen that the fusion of improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy variable set theory makes the accuracy of the evaluation result of water bursting risk in mine floor effectively improved, which provides new theoretical support for the reliable evaluation of mine floor water bursting.