基于农村人口承载力的乡村振兴多维路径

Multi-dimensional Path of Rural Revitalization Based on the Population Carrying Capacity of Rural Area

本文从农村人口承载力的视角对乡村振兴的实现路径进行了分析。在农业农村占国民经济比重不断下降趋势下,依靠农业农村10%左右的GDP占比支撑总人口占比超过40%的农村居民实现人均收入水平和生活水平与城市居民大体相当是异常困难的,乡村没有能力承担超过其人口承载能力的责任和功能。如果不能大幅度减少农业人口,乡村振兴的系列目标很难实现;要防止因为强调农业农村优先发展而在政策层面"农村一边倒"。要在城镇化大框架内通过建立健全城乡融合发展的体制机制与政策体系推动城乡生产要素双向流动,解决农业农村发展面临的要素总量过剩但质量素质不高问题,一方面通过农业生产组织变革吸引优质要素注入、优化乡村要素结构,提升乡村产业质量效益竞争力,另一方面应推动超出乡村发展需要和承载能力的存量要素转移和优化,将乡村闲置和低效生产要素转移到城市,挖掘提高农村存量要素的潜力和效率,逐步实现城乡产出、人口、要素的总量和结构均衡。

This paper has analyzed the realization path of rural revitalization from the perspective of rural population carrying capacity.Under the trend that agricultural and rural areas account for the decreasing proportion of the national economy,it is extremely difficult for rural residents to rely on agricultural and rural areas to account for more than 40% of the total population,and to achieve a per capita income level and living standard.The rural area does not have the capacity to assume responsibility and function beyond its population carrying capacity.If the rural population cannot be drastically reduced,the series of rural revitalization goals will be difficult to achieve.It is necessary to prevent the rural level from falling over at the policy level because of emphasizing the priority development of agriculture and rural areas,and to promote the two-way flow of urban and rural production factors through the establishment of a system and policy system for urban and rural integration development within the framework of urbanization,and to solve the problem of excessive total quantity of elements in agricultural and rural development,but the quality is not high.On the other hand,we should transfer the stock factors beyond rural development needs and carrying capacity to cities,explore the potential and efficiency of rural stocks,and gradually realize the total and structural balance of urban-rural output,population and factor.